XRP jumped roughly 22% in 24 hours, trading near $1.26 and clearing the level CryptoChohad flagged in July as the upside target of its breakout setup.
That July framework had put $1.18 as the breakout line, with open interest surging as traders positioned for the move.
XRP has now cleared the $1.26 shelf that framework was built around, pushing the market question above $1.26 and onto higher levels on the chart.
The liquidation ladder is pointing toward $1.38
Fresh Hyperliquid positioning data shows cumulative short liquidations around $607,000 at $1.28, climbing to about $1.4 million at $1.32, and reaching roughly $2.2 million at $1.38, about 9.5% above current spot.
A leveraged short position profits when price falls, so when exchanges forcibly close a short during a rally, the trader has to buy the asset back to exit. That buying happens whether the trader wants it or not, and it can add real demand to an already climbing move.
CoinGlass describes this as a cascading pattern during sharp price swings, where each liquidated position can feed the next.
Hyperliquid’s XRP open interest sits around $116.4 million, with total short-liquidation exposure across all price levels at $49.5 million. The $2.2 million exposed by $1.38 equals only about 4.4% of that total, large enough to influence near-term positioning without guaranteeing the rally continues.
Funding remained moderately positive at 0.0100% over eight hours, a bullish tilt that falls short of the kind of crowded, euphoric reading that usually precedes a sharp reversal.
XRP price level
Distance from ~$1.26 spot
Liquidation pressure
Market implication
$1.38
+9.5%
~$2.2M shorts
Main short-squeeze target
$1.32
+4.8%
~$1.4M shorts
Midpoint continuation level
$1.28
+1.6%
~$607K shorts
First upside trigger
~$1.26
Spot
—
Current reference level
$1.23
-2.4%
~$85K longs
Early downside warning
$1.19
-5.6%
~$525K longs
Failed-squeeze risk
$1.13
-10.3%
~$2.1M longs
Long-liquidation mirror zone
$1.40 to $1.50 is the real test
Traders have identified $1.40 to $1.50 as XRP’s bigger structural resistance zone for months, the level needed to turn the broader chart decisively bullish, well past a simple recovery from its most recent slide.
Only a sustained move through that would turn the current rally into something bigger than a short-covering bounce.
A pullback to $1.19 would expose about $525,000 of cumulative long liquidations on Hyperliquid. A full reversal to $1.13, roughly 10.3% below current spot, would push that figure to about $2.1 million, almost a mirror image of the climb toward $1.38.
Santiment tracked roughly 1.1% of circulating XRP supply moving on Aug. 17, once sitting untouched for an average of 518.95 days, about 25 times normal dormant-supply activity. Exchange volume did not spike alongside that movement, a pattern consistent with wallet-to-wallet transfers so far.
Zone
Level
What it signals
Article framing
Extension target
$1.60–$1.73
Only relevant if $1.40–$1.50 confirms
Not the base case
Breakout test
$1.40–$1.50
Higher-timeframe resistance
Decides whether squeeze becomes breakout
Squeeze target
$1.38
Largest near-term short-liq cluster cited
Immediate upside objective
Current area
~$1.26
Old upside target now cleared
New setup begins here
Breakdown risk
$1.19
Long liquidations rise
Failed-squeeze confirmation
Full reversal risk
$1.13
Long liquidations approach upside mirror
Bear-case acceleration
Santiment is also watching a separate 49 million XRP block still sitting in an unidentified wallet, after a Ripple-linked operational address moved 50 million XRP on Aug. 13, with 1 million of that going to a Binance-linked address.
If the remaining 49 million XRP moves toward an exchange, dormant supply becomes active selling when the squeeze needs continued demand to keep climbing.
XRP’s price declined through late May to August as dormant-coin movement spiked sharply in early July and again in August. Source: Santiment
Related Reading
Bitcoin price hits $69,500 because US just doubled Treasury buybacks to crush long-term yields
Whether the squeeze becomes a breakout
Bitcoin registered an intraday high of $72,966 on Aug. 20, once the US Treasury moved to double its buyback size for long-duration debt. The move was tied to relief across risk assets, arriving on the heels of a bond selloff that had pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to its highest level since 2007.
Part of the broader crypto rally also stemmed from short-covering after a stretch of narrow trading ended, the same mechanic driving XRP’s squeeze.
The dollar has softened too, with the DXY near 98.90 on Aug. 20, down 2.24% over the prior month, though the Fed backdrop stays mixed. The July FOMC minutes showed officials holding the funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, with three dissenting in favor of a hike.
The bull case has XRP clearing $1.38 and continuing to absorb supply into the $1.40 to $1.50 zone, converting the short squeeze into a break of XRP’s larger resistance band.
Some traders have floated $1.60 to $1.73 as follow-on targets, though only if the structure confirms first. That confirmation still has to happen at $1.40 to $1.50 before those higher levels become relevant.
The bear case has XRP losing $1.28 to $1.32 and failing to hold the squeeze, sending price back toward $1.19 and then $1.13. Long liquidations take over from the short-liquidation ladder that pushed price up in the first place.
Scenario
Trigger
What supports it
What breaks it
Bull breakout
XRP clears $1.38, then sustains $1.40–$1.50
Forced short-covering, positive funding, broader crypto risk rally
Dormant XRP moves to exchanges or price rejects resistance
Base squeeze
XRP trades through $1.28–$1.32 and tests $1.38
Liquidation ladder adds buying pressure
Momentum fades before $1.38
Bear reversal
XRP loses $1.28–$1.32 and heads toward $1.19
Late longs become exposed; long liquidations build
Buyers defend spot and prevent cascade
Supply shock
49M XRP block moves toward an exchange
Dormant supply becomes active sell-side risk
Wallet remains inactive or avoids exchanges
Dormant XRP reaching an exchange would compound that move, turning Santiment’s watch-list wallet from a background risk into an active source of selling right as the market needs buyers.
XRP has already cleared the target that defined its last recovery. What happens between $1.26 and $1.50 now depends on whether forced short-covering can outlast the supply sitting one wallet transfer away from an exchange.
The post Sudden 22% XRP rally triggers forced market wide short-buying, driving XRP toward a make-or-break resistance test appeared first on CryptoCho
