TLDR:
Tiger Research sets Bitcoin’s 12-month target at $143,000 using a neutral TVM base of $132,500.
Upside from current BTC levels widened to 103% in Q2 2026, up from 93% recorded in Q1.
Global M2 hit $134.4T, but 60% came from China, limiting liquidity access to Bitcoin markets.
Bitcoin L2 TVL dropped 74% year-to-date, prompting a fundamental indicator revision to -10% for Q2.Â
Bitcoin carries a 12-month target price of $143,000, according to Tiger Research’s Q2 2026 Bitcoin valuation report.
The firm used its TVM methodology to calculate a neutral base of $132,500. Adjustments of -10% for fundamentals and +20% for macro factors were then applied.
The Q2 target is 23% below Q1’s $185,500 projection. Yet upside from current prices has widened from 93% in Q1 to 103% in Q2. Bitcoin averaged $70,500 in early April 2026.
Macro Tailwinds Persist Despite Slower Momentum
Global M2 liquidity hit an all-time high of $134.4 trillion as of February 2026. Yet Bitcoin fell roughly 27% from Q1 levels over the same period.
The gap stems from where that liquidity came from. Over 60% of M2 growth among major economies originated in China through PBOC easing.
China’s crypto trading restrictions block much of that liquidity from reaching Bitcoin markets. Indirect routes through Hong Kong and Singapore mainly serve institutional flows.
The U.S. contributed just 10% of M2 growth during this period. So the share of global liquidity reaching the asset has shrunk.
The Iran conflict also set back the cryptocurrency’s recovery timeline. Following the U.S.-Israel strike on Iran on February 28, Brent crude surged to $118 by mid-March.
U.S. CPI climbed from 2.4% in February to 3.3% in March. The Fed’s rate-cut projections for 2026 then dropped to just one in the March dot plot.
Still, the direction of Fed easing has not reversed. By mid-April, the Strait of Hormuz partially reopened and oil prices retreated to roughly $90. Core CPI held at 2.6%, showing the energy shock has not broadly spread. Tiger Research revised its macro adjustment from Q1, landing at +20% for Q2.
On-Chain Signals Recover While Fundamentals Contract
Tiger Research reported via X that on-chain metrics have cleared the Q1 fear zone. MVRV-Z, NUPL, and aSOPR have entered early recovery territory.
Bitcoin’s current price of $70,500 sits about 13% below the long-term holder average entry of $78,000. A break above that level is the key near-term reversal signal.
Institutional flows have added support to the recovery. Strategy bought 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion in a single week between April 13 and 19.
ETF year-to-date flows turned positive by mid-April, with AUM recovering to $96.5 billion. Short-term holder cost basis has been declining, suggesting accumulation at lower prices.
Network usage data, however, paints a weaker picture. Daily Bitcoin transactions averaged 564,000 in early April 2026, up 37.9% year-over-year.
Active addresses fell 13.2% year-over-year to 428,000 over the same period. Average transfer size dropped to 1.19 BTC from 1.80 BTC in Q1.
Bitcoin L2 TVL fell 74% year-to-date, per The Block’s 2026 Digital Asset Outlook. Total BTCFi TVL declined 10%, covering only 0.46% of total BTC supply.
The BTCFi growth thesis behind Q1’s neutral fundamental score has broken down. Tiger Research revised the Fundamental Indicator to -10%, reflecting the absence of real network growth.
