TLDR
Bernstein projects Bitcoin could hit $125,000 by the end of 2026 and $150,000 by mid-2027.
A currency-debasement scenario could push BTC to $200,000 in 2027 and $500,000 in 2029.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in over $1.1 billion across two sessions in late August.
Bernstein cut its Strategy (MSTR) price target from $450 to $350 while keeping an Outperform rating.
Bitcoin traded near $78,458 on Aug. 26, down 1% daily but up nearly 14% for the week.
Bitcoin has drawn a fresh price forecast from Wall Street research firm Bernstein. Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote in an Aug. 26 client note that the asset could recover to around $125,000 by the end of 2026.
The firm expects Bitcoin to rise further to roughly $150,000 by mid-2027. That forecast follows Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle pattern, according to the note.
Bernstein also built a model based on Bitcoin’s marginal production cost. Using that method, the firm placed the next cycle peak near $300,000 in 2029.
A second, more bullish scenario exists too. If institutional demand grows alongside worries about government debt, Bernstein said Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029.
The firm kept its longer-term target of $1 million by the end of 2033. Each number is a projection, not a guarantee.
ETF Demand Returns
Institutional access through U.S. spot ETFs plays a role in the forecast. Bernstein said ETF buying and corporate treasury purchases may have softened Bitcoin’s recent drop compared to past cycles.
In earlier downturns, Bitcoin fell between 75% and 90% from its highs. This time, the decline reached about 50% from October 2025 before BTC rebounded 28% in 10 days.
Ownership data showed 59% of Bitcoin’s supply had not moved in the past year. Bernstein pointed to this as a sign that many holders are keeping their coins through price swings.
Fund flow data backs this up. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $606 million on Aug. 20, following $517 million the prior day, according to SoSoValue figures.
BlackRock also lowered the minimum Bitcoin amount needed to convert into its IBIT fund. The threshold dropped from $25 million to $1 million in July, a 96% cut.
BlackRock’s Robbie Mitchnick said IBIT has processed more than $5 billion in such conversions, up from about $3 billion in October. IBIT held roughly $60.65 billion in net assets as of Aug. 25.
Strategy Target Lowered
Bernstein separately adjusted its outlook for Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder. The firm cut its price target from $450 to $350 but kept an Outperform rating.
The new target still represents about 176% upside from Strategy’s $126.83 closing price on Aug. 25. Strategy holds 840,447 BTC, close to 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply cap.
Strategy raised about $2 billion from stock sales during the week ended Aug. 23 but did not buy Bitcoin. It added $300 million to its dollar reserve, which now stands near $5.1 billion.
Bitcoin itself traded near $78,458 on Aug. 26, down 1% over 24 hours but up almost 14% for the week. The move followed July inflation data showing prices rose 3.7% year-over-year, just above forecasts.
Bitcoin futures open interest fell 2.7% to $54.8 billion following the report. A Polymarket contract currently gives Bitcoin a 68% chance of reaching $85,000 by the end of 2026.
