TLDR:
Trump’s April 2025 tariffs sparked peak retail fear in crypto, pushing traders to sell near the market bottom.
Bitcoin hit $126K in October 2025, but a 100% China tariff announcement triggered a four-month-long price decline.
February 2026’s 15% global tariff order came despite a Supreme Court ruling that declared the action illegal.
Santiment data shows retail sentiment spikes around tariff news consistently serve as counter-indicators for smart traders.
Tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump have triggered repeated waves of volatility across cryptocurrency markets.
Over the past year, three major tariff announcements have generated measurable reactions in crypto social media sentiment.
Each episode drew heavy retail trader responses, often leading to poor market timing decisions. Santiment, a crypto analytics firm, tracked these events and noted a consistent pattern between tariff news and Bitcoin price movements.
Retail Traders Caught Off Guard by Tariff Announcements
In April 2025, Trump introduced country-specific tariffs targeting several major economies. China faced a steep 60% tariff, while Mexico, the EU, Japan, and India were hit with rates between 25% and 40%.
The announcements sent fear through crypto communities on X, Reddit, and Telegram. Retail discourse surged, and many traders exited their positions near market lows.
Santiment noted that peak fear among retail investors often signals a buying opportunity for experienced traders. In this case, the mass exodus from crypto came at the bottom of a market cycle.
Those who sold during peak fear missed out on the subsequent recovery. The episode became a textbook case of retail behavior during geopolitical uncertainty.
Then, in October 2025, five days after Bitcoin reached a $126,000 all-time high, Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. Social volume around tariff discussions spiked again almost immediately.
Trump reversed the decision just two days later, but the damage to market confidence was already done. Many traders assumed the pattern from April would repeat and bought in, expecting another bottom.
That assumption proved costly. Instead of a bounce, the market entered a prolonged decline lasting more than four months. Traders who held above $115,000 saw Bitcoin drop well below that level.
Santiment flagged this as one of the last chances retail investors had to exit above that price point. The on-again, off-again policy left many caught between hope and uncertainty.
February 2026 Tariffs Add Legal Conflict to Market Tension
The most recent development came in February 2026, when Trump announced 15% global tariffs on all imports. This announcement followed a Supreme Court ruling that declared such tariff actions illegal.
The dual nature of the news — both economic and legal — created a more layered reaction than previous episodes. Social dominance around the word “tariffs” climbed sharply across crypto platforms.
Bitcoin selloffs followed the announcement, continuing the established pattern. However, the constitutional conflict between the executive branch and the judiciary added a new layer of uncertainty.
Crypto markets have rarely had to factor in active legal battles over presidential authority. That combination makes current conditions harder to read than past tariff cycles.
Santiment noted that geopolitical and monetary policy events are now moving crypto markets in ways previously unseen. Retail sentiment data continues to serve as a useful counter-indicator during these episodes.
Until the legal and trade disputes stabilize, analysts expect continued price swings. Traders are being advised to watch social sentiment closely before making major moves.
