TLDR
Tom Lee has backed away from his $250,000 Bitcoin prediction for 2025, now calling a new all-time high before year-end just a “maybe”
Lee still expects Bitcoin to trade above $100,000 before the end of 2025, with 35 days remaining in the year
Bitcoin historically makes most of its annual gains in just 10 days, and Lee believes some of Bitcoin’s best days could still happen this year
Bitcoin dropped after a $19 billion crypto market liquidation following President Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods
Lee has a mixed track record with Bitcoin predictions, correctly calling $20,000 by 2022 in 2017, but missing his $125,000 by 2022 target made in 2018
Tom Lee, chair of BitMine, has softened his prediction for Bitcoin’s price by the end of 2025. The analyst, known for bullish crypto forecasts, now says reaching a new all-time high is just a “maybe” rather than a certainty.
Lee spoke to CNBC on Wednesday and gave a more cautious outlook than his previous statements. “I think it’s still very likely that Bitcoin is going to be above $100,000 before year-end, and maybe even to a new high,” he said.
This marks the first time Lee has publicly walked back his $250,000 year-end target. He started promoting that figure earlier in 2024 and repeated it through early October.
Other crypto industry leaders were skeptical of Lee’s original target from the start. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said in October that “crazy stuff” would need to happen for Bitcoin to reach that level.
Bitcoin currently trades around $91,589, down 1.85% over the past 12 months. The cryptocurrency reached its all-time high of $125,100 in October before entering a downtrend.
Despite lowering his target, Lee maintains that Bitcoin’s strongest days of 2025 may still be ahead. He pointed to Bitcoin’s historical pattern of making most gains in a short window.
Bitcoin’s Best Days Happen Fast
Lee explained that Bitcoin typically makes the majority of its gains during just 10 trading days each year. This view is shared across the crypto industry.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley wrote in February 2024 that missing Bitcoin’s 10 best days historically means missing nearly all of its returns. In 2024, Bitcoin’s strongest 10 days delivered a combined return of 52%.
The remaining 355 days of 2024 generated an average return of negative 15%. This pattern supports Lee’s view that quick moves can happen at any time.
Bitcoin faced pressure after a $19 billion liquidation across the crypto market. This followed President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods.
The cryptocurrency spent six consecutive days below $90,000 before reclaiming that level on Wednesday. Economist Timothy Peterson said on Monday that Bitcoin’s bottom may already be in or will occur this week.
Lee’s Track Record on Bitcoin Predictions
Lee has made both accurate and inaccurate Bitcoin forecasts over the years. In January 2018, he predicted Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by 2022.
That target missed by three years. Bitcoin only reached that level in October 2025.
However, Lee also made accurate calls. In July 2017, he projected Bitcoin could reach $20,000 by 2022 in a base case scenario.
His bullish scenario saw a potential price of $55,000 over the same period. Bitcoin hit $20,000 in December 2020 and $55,000 in March 2021, according to CoinMarketCap.
With 35 days left in 2025, Bitcoin holders are waiting to see if Lee’s revised prediction proves correct. November is historically Bitcoin’s strongest month on average since 2013, according to CoinGlass data.
