TLDR:
Bitcoin shows strong correlation with equities, placing short-term price action under macro and liquidity influence.
Short-term holders sent over 94,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss, marking the largest capitulation of this correction.
Options data shows negative gamma exposure, increasing the chance of sharp moves around key expiration dates.
Long-term power-law valuation signals Bitcoin trades over 40% below trend despite ongoing macro pressure.
Bitcoin traded in volatile ranges as macro pressure and investor panic shaped near-term price action. Data showed heavy selling from short-term holders as the asset slipped below key technical levels.
At the same time, long-term valuation models signaled a widening gap between price and trend value. The divergence revealed a market pulled between liquidity stress and structural repricing forces.
Bitcoin Price Mispricing Tied to Macro Correlation and Options Structure
Bitcoin moved in step with U.S. equities during the latest pullback. Thirty-day correlations showed strong alignment with Nasdaq, S&P 500, and high-yield bonds.
Recency-weighted data confirmed the link with risk assets remained elevated. This pattern placed short-term direction under macro and liquidity influence rather than narrative-driven trading.
Lead and lag signals showed equities and credit markets moving before Bitcoin. According to figures shared by David (@david_eng_mba), the Nasdaq led Bitcoin by about four days, while the dollar index led by roughly ten days.
Options market positioning reinforced near-term uncertainty. Spot price hovered near the gamma flip zone, with resistance clustered near $70,000 and risk concentrated below that level.
Net gamma exposure remained negative, pointing to unstable price behavior. A squeeze score above the midpoint suggested sensitivity to sharp intraday moves.
Upcoming expiries added another layer of pressure. More than 15% of total gamma was set to roll off on February 13, with larger portions expiring later in February and March.
These expiries increased the probability of breakouts once hedging pressure faded. Until then, price action stayed confined between heavy put and call walls.
Short-Term Holder Capitulation Highlights Bitcoin Price Mispricing Gap
On-chain data showed panic-driven transfers from short-term holders. Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) reported daily average flows of over 94,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss.
The transfers occurred as Bitcoin dropped below $65,000. Exchange inflows from short-term holders often indicate intent to sell rather than reposition.
This behavior marked the largest capitulation event of the correction cycle. It reflected emotional reactions during rapid downside moves.
While near-term selling intensified, long-term valuation metrics pointed elsewhere. Power-law trend models placed fair value above $120,000.
The gap between market price and model value exceeded 40%. A negative Z-score signaled an oversold condition relative to historical norms.
Mean-reversion timelines projected gradual recovery over several months. These projections extended into mid and late 2026 based on trend reversion math.
Short-term volatility and long-term valuation now diverged sharply. Macro weakness dictated immediate price movement, while structural models framed a different trajectory.
