TLDR:
BTC price touched $106K twice, aligning with mean trendline supporting rallies throughout 2025.
Exchange inflows remain low, indicating accumulation instead of panic selling at recent highs.
The 100-day and 200-day moving averages continue upward, maintaining bullish market structure.
Fed rate cuts and tariff easing create supportive liquidity conditions for Bitcoin in November.
Bitcoin price recently corrected, prompting investor questions about a potential crash. Analysts argue this is a normal reset rather than a decline. Market charts show BTC repeatedly bouncing off long-term trendlines.
Exchange inflows remain subdued, signaling accumulation over panic selling. Macro factors, including Fed rate cuts and easing global tensions, may support upcoming gains.
Bitcoin Price Reset, Not a Crash
Crypto analyst @BullTheoryio noted that October’s pullbacks were part of Bitcoin’s natural price reset. He highlighted that the BTC Mean Reversion + Regression Chart showed prices dropping to $106K twice, touching the trendline that has supported rallies throughout 2025.
Despite these drops, the regression slope remains upward. Both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages continue to hold, reinforcing that the broader market structure is intact.
BullTheory emphasized that this pullback mirrors prior patterns before major price expansions.
The BTC Fractal Echo, a historical trend tool, shows momentum slowing near the mean before resuming upward. This pattern indicates consolidation rather than a start of a bear phase. He noted that volatility has cleared leverage rather than conviction, which often precedes bullish momentum.
Exchange inflow data supports this view. Even after corrections, BTC reserves on exchanges did not spike. Instead, coins are being held, showing accumulation during fear. Such behavior contrasts with distribution at market peaks, implying that traders are maintaining positions.
The analyst also cited macroeconomic improvements as supportive. Fed rate cuts of 25 basis points, an end to quantitative tightening scheduled for December 1, and lower U.S.–China tariffs have eased liquidity pressures. Historically, similar conditions have preceded major Bitcoin rallies.
Veteran Trader Contrasts Swing Trading and Long-Term Holdings
Peter Brandt, a veteran trader with years of Bitcoin experience, shared a nuanced view on positioning.
In a tweet, he noted the challenge of holding opposing stances across different accounts. As a long-term investor, he owns Bitcoin, while as a swing trader, he is currently short BTC futures due to short-term chart patterns like megaphone formations.
Brandt’s insight reflects the difference between macro accumulation and tactical trading.
While long-term holders see price consolidation as healthy, traders may exploit short-term volatility. This approach illustrates how diverse strategies coexist without signaling broader market weakness.
Overall, market activity shows that Bitcoin is not crashing but entering a reset phase. Analysts point to trendline support, stable moving averages, and accumulation behavior as evidence.
With improved liquidity and policy easing, November may set the stage for renewed upward momentum.
