Bitcoin’s bull market: A slowdown, not a breakdown

Bitcoin’s big buyers seem to have stepped off the gas.
For the better part of the last year or so, it felt like there was a constant tailwind behind Bitcoin’s price. ETFs vacuumed up coins, stablecoin balances kept climbing, and traders were willing to go to insane levels of leverage to bet on more upside. NYDIG called these the “demand engines” of the cycle in its latest report. The company argued that several of those engines have reversed course: ETFs are seeing net outflows, the stablecoin base has stalled, and futures markets look cautious.
That sounds rather ominous if you only read the headline. Unfortunately, as always, the truth is always somewhere in the middle. We will walk through each of those engines, keep the focus on dollars in and out, and end with the practical question everyone cares about: if the big machines are really slowing, does it break the bull market or slow it down?
When the ETF hose stops blasting
The simplest engine to understand is the ETF pipe. Since their launch in January 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have brought in tens of billions of dollars in net inflows. That money came from advisers, hedge funds, family offices, and retail investors who chose a brokerage ticker as their preferred method of Bitcoin exposure. The crucial detail is that they were net buyers almost every week for most of the year.
But that pattern broke over the past month. On several days in November, the ETF complex logged heavy redemptions, including some of the largest outflows since launch. A few of the funds that had been reliable buyers (think BlackRock) flipped to net sellers. For anyone looking at a single day of data, it sure could have felt like the entire ETF market blew up.
 
Graph showing the cumulative flow for spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US from January 2024 to November 2025 (Source: Farside)
The longer view is, of course, less dramatic but important nevertheless. Cumulative flows are still deeply positive, and all funds still hold a huge pool of Bitcoin. What changed is the direction of marginal money: instead of new cash flowing steadily in, some investors are taking profits, cutting exposure or moving into other trades. That means spot price no longer has a constant mechanical buyer sitting underneath it.
A lot of that behavior is tied to how investors now hedge and manage risk. Once regulators allowed much higher position limits on ETF options (from 25,000 to 250,000 contracts), institutions could run covered-call strategies and other overlays on top of their ETF holdings. That gave them more ways to adjust risk without dumping shares, but also drained some of the pure “buy and hold at any price” energy. When price surged toward the top, some investors capped their upside for income. When price rolled over, others used the same options market to hedge instead of adding more spot.
The second engine sits in stablecoins. If ETFs are the Wall Street-friendly funnel into Bitcoin, stablecoins are the crypto-native cash pile that lives inside the system. When USDT, USDC, and peers grow, it usually means more fresh dollars are arriving or at least being parked on exchanges ready to deploy. For much of the last year, Bitcoin’s big legs higher lined up with a growing stablecoin base.
That pattern is wobbling, as the total stablecoin supply has stopped growing and even shrunk a little in the past month. Different trackers disagree on the exact amount, but the drop is clear enough. Some of that can be put down to simple risk reduction: traders pulling money out of exchanges, funds rotating into Treasuries, and smaller tokens losing market share. But some of it is real withdrawal of capital from the market.
The takeaway here is straightforward: the pool of digital dollars that can chase Bitcoin higher is no longer expanding. That doesn’t automatically push price down, but it does mean every rally has to be funded out of a more or less fixed pot. There’s less “new money” sloshing around on exchanges that can instantly flood into BTC when sentiment turns.
The third engine lives in derivatives. Funding rates on perpetual futures are a fee that traders pay to keep those contracts in line with spot price. When funding is strongly positive, it usually means many traders are long with leverage and are paying to stay that way. When funding goes negative, shorts are paying longs and the market is skewed toward bets on downside. The “basis” on regulated futures like CME is simply the gap between futures and spot. A big positive basis usually shows strong demand to be long with leverage.
NYDIG points out that both of these gauges have cooled. Funding on offshore perpetuals has flipped negative at times. CME futures premia have compressed. Open interest is lower than it was at the peak. This tells us a lot of leveraged longs were washed out in the recent drawdown and haven’t rushed back. Traders are more cautious, and in some pockets they’re now willing to pay for downside protection instead of upside exposure.
This matters for two reasons. First, leveraged buyers are often the marginal force that takes a move from a healthy uptrend to a vertical blow-off. If they’re nursing losses or sitting on the sidelines, moves tend to be slower, choppier and significantly less fun for anyone hoping for instant all-time highs. Second, when leverage builds in one direction, it can amplify both gains and crashes. A market with less leverage can still move a lot, but it’s less prone to sudden air pockets triggered by liquidations.
So if ETFs are leaking, stablecoins are flat, and derivatives traders are cautious, who’s on the other side of this selloff?
Here is where the picture becomes more subtle. On-chain data and exchange metrics suggest that some long-term holders have used the recent volatility to take profits. Coins that sat dormant for long periods have started to move again. At the same time, there are signs that newer wallets and smaller buyers are quietly accumulating. Some address clusters that rarely spend have also added to their balances. And some retail flows on large exchanges still lean toward net buying on the worst days.
That is the core of NYDIG’s “reversal, not doom” framing. The most visible, headline-friendly demand engines have shifted into reverse just as price cooled. Underneath that, there’s still a slow transfer from older, richer cohorts to newer ones. The flow of this money is choppier and less mechanical than the ETF boom period, which makes the market feel harsher for anyone who arrived late. But it isn’t the same thing as capital vanishing altogether.
What this actually means for you
First, the easy mode is more or less gone for now. For much of the year, ETF inflows and growing stablecoin balances acted like a one-way escalator. You didn’t need to know much about futures funding or options limits to understand why price kept grinding higher, because new money kept arriving. That background bid has faded and, in some weeks, flipped into net selling, making drawdowns feel heavier and rallies harder to sustain.
Second, a slowdown in demand engines does’t automatically kill a cycle. Bitcoin’s long-run case still revolves around fixed supply, growing institutional rails and a steady expansion of places where it can sit on balance sheets, and those structures are still in place.
What changes is the path between here and the next high. Instead of a straight line driven by one giant narrative, the market will start trading more on positioning and pockets of liquidity. ETF flows may swing between red and green, stablecoins may bounce around a plateau instead of sprinting higher, and derivatives markets may spend more time in neutral. That kind of environment rewards patience more than bravado.
Finally, if you zoom out, reversals in the demand engines are part of how every cycle breathes. Heavy inflows set the stage for overextension, but then outflows and cooling leverage force a reset. New buyers arrive at lower prices, usually quieter and with less fanfare. NYDIG’s argument is that Bitcoin is somewhere in that reset phase, and the data supports that view.
The engines that drove the first leg of the bull run are running slower, some in reverse, but it doesn’t mean the machine is broken. It means the next leg will depend less on automatic pipes and more on whether investors still want to own this thing once the easy part has passed.
The post Bitcoin’s bull market: A slowdown, not a breakdown appeared first on CryptoCho